2003/11/26

Until yesterday, I didn't know exactly the growth curve of our business, to do a pragmatic study , in order to response to the board and prepare next year's budget, the management team and financial sector spend like 3 weeks dig all the numbers and come up with the shock curve, it's not a horn, I always dream of service business is a cumulative growth due to escalation of subscriber or services, but, what present in front of me is a bumble curve, it's up and down, when reach break even in certain month, it will dive below the NIBT, then surface again in certain period; the curve destroy our dream to be the key service provider, calculate all the figures, we have deployed 1 billions NT in the business for almost 3 years, to keep the operation running smoothly, 35millions per month for SGA is no way to escape, and return on investment will drag for another 10 years, how the picture will attract further investment or get people exciting ? we pay a lot to learn and only a few of us really learned, if you don't have a deep pocket or the fund you received wasn't from your own pocket, the answer may never arrived, cause you will die half way and no non can really point out where the treasure island is or is there existing a treasure island.

the horn doesn't illustrate because acquisition spending keep flat, it's not a fix cost, it's a varies cost, even you stop acquire new subscriber, retention will force you to spend as well, to guard and wall your harvest -- your existing subscriber, keep them from churn out or terminate service -- internet is a utility alike resource, but it is not as critic as electric or water, and this is not a monopoly business, you always enjoy better price or better premium by scouting other service provider, the cut-throat competition kills all the player exclude the dominate one -- most likely the one who equipped with carrier background. to serve as the reseller or second landlord will never make good business out of it. the finding didn't drive me to blue, as far as I know the fact, I can prepare myself earlier, how to motivate ourselves and people surrounding us is the key. COO mentioned something about why some of the player sound very quite these days - no TV commercial, very conservative premium bundle, use price as the only marketing tool , probably the answer is they saw the end picture earlier than us and refrain from spending -- especially spending on acquisition.

if the capital market is healthy, then we may enjoy the capital gain against the industry growth curve or if we do have a story to tell, then we may solicitation individual investor, but we are a list company overseas, no way to either go public in Taiwan or raising found domestically, so, to earn the money and gain back what's been invested is a very tough challenge.

The good thing is overheard what our Product manager told us yesterday, among all the ISP , we've been evaluate as the No. 1 service provider rank by the government body - Telecommunication bureau, if what he said is truth, then we achieve something and reach the goal we set 2 years ago -- sincere service and excellent quality ; people serve people, in the service sector, the price we pay is manpower, overhead is the key spending, machine or system is the tool to help us perform better, a crucial part for the company development.

I don't know how the HQ look at us when receive the new and true picture, service sector -- should we embrace it or abandon it ?